The NHL recently outlined new rules for its draft lottery. The new rules are:
- The number of lottery draws is reduced from 3 to 2 so the last-place team cannot get lower than the third overall pick.
- There is now a cap on how far up a lottery winner can move in the draft. The limit is 10 picks. This means that only 11 teams can win the lottery and draft first overall instead of 16 like now.
- No team can win the draft lottery more than twice in a five-year period. Let’s just call this the Edmonton Rule.
Can the NHL please get out of its own way?!?! Hockey already has a problem with gaining new fans and then they do things like this. The draft lottery was already a difficult thing for people to understand but then they go ahead and add three news stipulations. I imagine the conversations entry level fans are going to have in the next few years. The NHL is forcing its die-hards into “well, actually” guys.
Fan. 1 – “Wow, our team sucks but at least we get the first pick in the draft, so that’s something to get excited about!”
Fan. 2 – “Well, actually, there’s a lottery system to determine who gets the first pick.”
Fan 1 – “Oh… I guess we at least have a really good chance of getting that first pick!”
Fan 2 – “Well, actually, uh no. You won the lottery last year and two years before that so you can’t get the top pick because no team can win the draft lottery more than twice in a five-year period.”
Fan 1 – “… I can’t wait for the NFL season to start.”
If we look beyond the frustration these rule changes welcome, the NHL flat out does not need a lottery. The argument for a lottery is that it prevents a team from deliberately tanking a season. But who cares?
If an organization wants to tank its season for one player in the upcoming draft, let them. If their fan base agrees then we get fun slogans like “Fallin for Dahlin” or “Suck for Tkachuk.” If the fanbase is against tanking they stop showing up for games and team loses money. Revenue loss is a strong disincentive for losing.
Even if a team does try to tank they still ice rosters of 18 professional athletes who grew up with an allergy to losing. Those guys will continue to play hard and do whatever they can to still win games.
A lottery may be necessary in a sport where one player can single handedly save a franchise, like the NBA (see Cleveland Cavaliers). But hockey is a true team game where your best player may only be on the ice for 1/3 of a game. Certainly Buffalo would be in a different position now if they had drafted Connor McDavid number one instead of getting Jack Eichel at number two in 2015 , but you kid yourself if you think McDavid on the current Sabres roster could even lead them to the playoffs. There’s so much more to winning in the NHL than just drafting with high picks. You need a deep, well constructed roster that goes beyond one player.
Let’s get rid of the NHL lottery for the sake of letting the fanbases of bad teams get excited and so we can stop being “well, actually” guys.
GPAnalytics 